Yesterday's race to and up the Alpe d'Huez is likely to be remembered as a legendary stage, especially as in Pierre Rolland it featured a French win for the first time this Tour and on top of the famous Alpe. The racing by the favourites started on the lower slopes of the Col du Télégraphe when Contador attacked. Cadel Evans was unlucky to have had a mechanical problem soon after and lost time when he had to change bikes. However, despite the best efforts of Alberto everything came back together at Bourg d'Oisans at the foot of the Alpe d'Huez. Contador attacked again got away and looked to be heading for the stage victory having passed Pierre Rolland, team mate of Thomas Voeckler, who had been allowed to attack just before the start of the climb. However, as Contador started to fade, Samuel Sánchez and Rolland caught Contador. Soon the Frenchman proved to be stronger than the two Spaniards and Pierre rode away for a famous first Tour stage victory.

Cadel Evans and the two Schlecks finished together with Andy taking the Yellow as Thomas Voeckler had been unable to follow the pace of the leaders up the Alpe. Even so he has done an amazing job defending Yellow since he won the jersey in Saint-Flour.

Mark Cavendish and most of the rest of the field just failed to make the cut but were reinstated. However, the riders all lost 20 points off their Green Jersey totals. Mark Cavendish now has 280, Rojas 265 and Gilbert 230 points. Mark should still win the Green but it is not quite as comfortable for him as it was before these two brutal Alpine stages.

Stage 20 Gap to Gap Individual Time Trial 42.5k

So it is has come down to time trial to decide the outcome of the 2011 Tour. Andy Schleck has 53 seconds on brother Frank and 57 on Cadel Evans, who starts as favourite to overhaul Andy. However, in the Bordeaux time trial last year Andy did much better than expected, so it could well be very tight. I'd like to see Cadel win but Andy Schleck might just hang on.

'Sculpture' from the finishing line of last year's time trial at Pauillac

The 18th stage from Pinerolo to the Col du Galibier was certainly brutally tough. Andy Schleck finally went for it and produced a great ride to win the stage from an attack 60km from the finish to move him to just 15 seconds away from taking the Yellow Jersey. Again Thomas Voeckler rode well surprising me once more as I predicted yesterday that he would lose it. I'll stop making predictions!

Cadel Evans also did a great ride up the Galibier to limit the lose of time to Andy Schleck and incidentally ensured that Voeckler remained in Yellow. Evans is now at 1.12 behind with Frank Schleck at 1.08. These four are now well over two minutes clear of Damiano Cunego and Ivan Basso both on 3.46. The big losers of the day were the two Spaniards – Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez. Both blew up at the top of the Galibier and lost a lot of time. Alberto is now 4.44 down and Sanchez at 5.20.

The pity for Evans was that the chasing bunch wasn't able to rise consistently to reduce the gap between them and Andy Schleck. Indeed the gap went out on the climb up the Col du Lautaret as no one was really prepared to take up the chase. It wasn't until right at the top that Cadel opted to really go for it that the gap started to come down but without assistance it was impossible to bring it right down. Evans reduced the gap by about two and half minutes but still finished 2.15 behind Andy.

More than half the field finished outside the time limit including Mark Cavendish. The Tour organisers decided to keep all the riders in the race but docked Mark 20 points from his Green Jersey total, so he is now only 15 points ahead of Rojas who just managed to cross the finishing line in time.

Stage 19: Mondane to L'Alpe d'Huez 109.5km

This is a very short but again brutally tough stage. Back over the Galibier but this time going up the harder northern side and heading down to Bourg d'Oisans and the famous L'Alpe d'Huez with its 21 steep corners. The Schlecks will want to take further time out of Cadel Evans. I'm sure Thomas Voeckler would love to hold on to Yellow at the end of this stage. Can Contador find the legs to attack on the Alpe and regain time?

If the favourites race hard all the way it is going to be very difficult for many riders to make the cut as the stage is so short. Mark Cavendish has to beat the time limit otherwise he will be in real trouble.

The Alpe is an amazing place to watch the Tour. We went there once in 1986 and saw Bernard Hainault and Greg Lemond ride up together. We had hoped to see Robert Millar doing well but he had an off day and was well down.

Yesterday the leading contenders finally produced fireworks rather than damp squibs. It was Alberto Contador who set things off early on the only categorised climb of the day – the Col de Manse (2nd Cat). Unlike Andy Schleck's tentative forays on the Plateau de Beille, Alberto put in a series of more sustained attacks and duly got his reward. Only Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez were able to  stay with him. The Schlecks were some 30 seconds down by the top of the climb.

Worst was to come on the descent as Andy Schleck lost further time ending 66 seconds behind Cadel Evans who dropped Contador and Sanchez on the descent and gained three seconds on them at the line. Voeckler held onto his Yellow Jersey comfortably although he lost time on this leading trio. Obviously Evans was the biggest gainer of the day, although Alberto showed that his knee must now be better and that he is ready to attack.

The Schlecks, in particular Andy, were the biggest losers compounded by Andy's winge about descents being dangerous. By their comments after the stage both brothers reinforced the impression that they hate going downhill. They look to be paying for their timidity in the Pyrénées.   

Although Mark Cavendish didn't pick up any more points, it was a good day for him holding onto his Green Jersey, coming in just seven places behind Andy Schleck and seeing his rivals just pick up a few points: Rojas 3 and Gilbert 2.   

17th Stage: Gap to Pinerolo
Today's mountain stage takes the riders into Italy (179k) over two 3rd cat, two 2nd cat and Sestrières – 1st cat. There is a lot of descending in the final part of the stage, so the Schlecks could again be under threat. Will Contador again attack? He will want to try to gain time on Evans if he can.

The intermediate sprint comes shortly after the first climb of the day – the Côte de Sainte-Marguerite, which is short (2.8K) but quite steep (7.4%), so unless there is a big breakaway Cav ought to be able to pick up a few more points here. Being a mountain stage there are only 20 points available to the winner of the stage.

Leading overall standings after 16th stage

1st: Thomas Voeckler
2nd Cadel Evans:   + 1.45
3rd: Frank Schleck: + 1.49
4th: Andy Schleck: + 3.03
5th: Samuel Sanchez: + 3.26
6th: Alberto Contador: + 3.42
7th: Ivan Basso: + 3.49
8th: Damiano Cunego: + 4.01