Today's stage that takes the race up into the Alps holds some potential threats to Mark Cavendish's lead in the points jersey. Essentially it is a long uphill climb from the Rhône Valley initially past the vineyards of the southern Côtes du Rhône past the little town of Nyons, which is famous for olive oil, and then up into the foothills of the Alps. Just before the finish in Gap there is the one categorised climb of the day – the Col de Manse a Cat 2 which goes up 9.5k at an average of 5.2%.

The danger for Mark comes if either Philippe Gilbert or José Joaquín Rojas are well placed on the climb and gain points at the finish as it is unlikely that Mark can hang in on such a climb. The ideal for Mark is that a fair sized bunch gets away early on. Providing there isn't anyone who is a threat to the favourites in the escape they will probably be let go allowing the leading contenders and their teams to conserve energy for the three Alpine stages to come. HTC will have to ensure that neither Gilbert or Rojas get into the escape. As Gilbert is no longer a threat overall – 20 min down – it would only be HTC who would be interested in chasing him down – similarly for Rojas.

The weather could play a role today. Météo France forecasts heavy, stormy rain and cold temperatures on the climb and the finish at Gap, while the Tour's own forecast has some rain earlier in the day but a dry but cool finish in Gap. Hopefully it will be dry for the descent and finish into Gap as the descent is dangerous. It was here in 2004 that Joseph Beloki crashed and effectively ended his career. It is possible that Thomas Voeckler might be tempted to try an attack on the Col de Manse and gain a little bit of time on his rivals as he can descend well.

Although the first mountain stage yesterday wasn't decisive it has clarified who are the leading contenders. A number of outside bets like Klöden, Gesink and Tony Martin have been eliminated from contention.   

At the top of Luz-Ardiden the number of contenders for overall victory is now down to seven max: Andy and Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, Damiano Cunego, Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez. Although it would be dangerous to discount Alberto Contador I think he and Sánchez are now outside bets. I believe we saw a tipping point when Alberto couldn't respond at the end to the attacks – he lost his aura of invincibility which even during last year's Tour was under question. It will be very interesting to see what happens on Saturday with the climb to the Plateau de Beille. There has been little discussion so far of Ivan Basso but he looked strong yesterday. He won last year's Tour of Italy, which was extraordinarily tough, and he is a good time trialist.

Good day for Mark Cavendish who increased his lead over Rojas by 2 points and over Gilbert by 6. Mark and HTC appear now to have sorted the sprints with Mark picking up maximum points after the bunch and his HTC team soaking up a number of the other points available – Mark Renshaw swallowed 8 points, so denying an additional one to Rojas. Looks like it is now only the teams of Mark C, Rojas and Gilbert who contest the intermediate sprints. Cavendish now has 260 points, Rojas 242 and Gilbert 234.

Gilbert did a great ride today but showed his limits in the high mountains when the going gets really tough. He remains a threat and could quite possibly pick up points tomorrow at Lourdes. Depends how much today took out of him. Cavendish should be able to pick up more intermediate points today.

Today's stage is from Pau to Lourdes. Quite short at 152.5 kilometres it isn't esepcially difficult with one 3rd cat and a 4th cat before the major climb of the day the Col d'Aubisque. Although it is hors categorie it is 40k from the finish in Lourdes so unlikely to play a part in the overall race. I fancy that Thomas Voeckler, who did a great ride yesterday, will remain in Yellow today – he has a lead of 1.49 on Frank Schleck. I think, however, that he is likely to lose the jersey on Saturday.    

Today it is a short (158 kilometres) but lumpy stage in Cantal and the Aveyron from Aurillac to Carmaux. There are three classified climbs – two 3rd category and two 4th – so no major difficulties but another day when it is up and down with very little on the flat. The forecast is a hotter than for the last two stages – 28-30˚C so warm but not scorching.

It will be a big surprise if Thomas Voeckler loses his Yellow Jersey today. Only a crash is likely to make it happen. I expect him to hold on to Yellow at least until Thursday (Bastille Day) when the race enters the Pyrénées. Although Voeckler may not lose it on the first day there I will be very surprised if he manages to hang on right through the Pyrénées.

Despite the lumpy course today's stage might end up as a sprint and if it does Mark Cavendish will have a good chance to notch up stage win number 18. The sprinters will be keen to hold the race together as there are not many opportunities for a bunch finish remaining in this year's Tour. The shortness of the stage may make it difficult to control any breakaway.

I expect Philippe Gilbert to to gain further points today, although his lead over Cavendish may be less at the end of today.